Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.417531 0.482425 0.553205 0.636021 0.730144 0.833666 0.956030
2025-08-17 0.302568 0.389428 0.493694 0.627525 0.794146 0.994112 1.251580
2025-08-24 0.238276 0.332396 0.453679 0.620247 0.841709 1.124503 1.511187
2025-08-31 0.190513 0.284482 0.412999 0.599710 0.861737 1.213670 1.718831
2025-09-07 0.171334 0.270908 0.414037 0.631895 0.951519 1.398856 2.066691
2025-09-14 0.143402 0.239530 0.384421 0.614913 0.967482 1.480259 2.274201
2025-09-21 0.121216 0.213132 0.357931 0.597864 0.979201 1.553590 2.472796
2025-09-28 0.103948 0.191818 0.336091 0.584404 0.993293 1.629340 2.678448
2025-10-05 0.094702 0.182518 0.332147 0.598533 1.051153 1.775472 3.002236
2025-10-12 0.089357 0.179209 0.337571 0.628289 1.136427 1.970563 3.417185
2025-10-19 0.082434 0.171964 0.335101 0.643726 1.198259 2.131342 3.787073
2025-10-26 0.074907 0.162465 0.327329 0.648552 1.241470 2.263388 4.117408
2025-11-02 0.067063 0.151442 0.315793 0.645861 1.272108 2.378180 4.430513
2025-11-09 0.059478 0.139888 0.301922 0.637327 1.291346 2.474741 4.719765
2025-11-16 0.053007 0.129710 0.289462 0.629951 1.311576 2.573816 5.019611
2025-11-23 0.046109 0.117520 0.271352 0.609117 1.303544 2.619871 5.225265
2025-11-30 0.044666 0.117599 0.278983 0.641768 1.403456 2.873996 5.833455
2025-12-07 0.039339 0.107667 0.263755 0.624541 1.400999 2.932669 6.075768
2025-12-14 0.034666 0.098589 0.249279 0.607245 1.396493 2.986376 6.311218
2025-12-21 0.030798 0.090931 0.237086 0.593591 1.398152 3.051837 6.573275
2025-12-28 0.029064 0.088620 0.237210 0.607924 1.461280 3.245398 7.103086
2026-01-04 0.028359 0.089000 0.243874 0.638110 1.561687 3.521940 7.818019
2026-01-11 0.026886 0.087012 0.244434 0.653769 1.630658 3.737217 8.419782